Iranian foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi told journalists that the three day inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency can be extended “if they desire”. Iranian officials have insisted that Iran’s quest for nuclear energy is for peaceful purposes and “the remarks appear to be part of a show of flexibility and transparency by Tehran”. (Time 01/30)

Panetta: It would take Iran 2-3 years to have deliverable nuke

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta appeared on 60 minutes this past weekend and said, “the consensus is that, if they decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon.”  Panetta has previously made it clear that Iran has not decided to go forward with building a nuclear weapon and that this is the U.S. redline. (The Hill 01/30)

Vote to cutoff oil exports to EU delayed

Iranian lawmakers on Sunday delayed a vote on a bill to immediately halt oil exports to the European Union. The bill would have pre-empted an oil embargo approved by the EU last week. (WJP 01/30)

A decision by Iran to cut oil exports to the European Union will affect the price of oil and hurt the region’s economy, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri told CNBC on Monday. El Bardi said that, “Today…the market is stable, there is no shortage of oil anywhere in the world,” he said. “However, to take out 400-500,000 barrels a day in a matter of days, this will affect the price. Of course the price will go up.” However , he also argued that the demand for oil is also weakening because of the protracted debt crisis in the euro zone, “when I see the EU debt crisis, it’s a problem, if not solved it will affect…almost everybody. The world growth will be less, there is no decoupling at this time,”.(CNBC 01/30)

Meanwhile, India reiterated it won’t cut back on Iran oil imports despite new U.S. and EU sanctions. (Washington Post 01/30)

Series of deaths reported within the Revolutionary Guard

“Over the last few days, four former commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps passed away without the usual condolences to their families from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.” (Tehran Bureau 01/28)

Pressure on Ahmadinejad

“Alef, the website that is published by Majles deputy Ahmad Tavakoli, a prominent Ahmadinejad critic, demanded that parliament declare the president incompetent under Article 89 of the Constitution, so that he can be impeached. Hossein Shariatmadari, the hardline managing editor of the newspaper Kayhan, accused Ahmadinejad of working with the United States.” (Tehran Bureau 01/28)

Iranian Scientist Arrested in the U.S. 
Seyed Mojtaba Atarodi, an Iranian professor, is being held in a U.S. prison in California, federal prison records show. Associated Press reported yesterday that Atarodi had been arrested and charged with buying scientific instruments from the U.S., citing a Sharif University spokesman who spoke on condition of anonymity. (Bloomberg 01/27)

Notable Opinion: Will Israel Really Attack Iran?

Gary Sick writes takes issue in Tehran Bureau with the New York Times Magazine cover story, “Will Israel Attack Iran?“, in which author Ronen Bergman concludes that Israel is likely strike Iran in 2012:

“Not only is his conclusion at odds with virtually everything he produces as evidence, but there are some omissions in his analysis that regrettably have become predictably routine in talking about the Iranian nuclear program.

He darkly quotes “the latest intelligence” about the number and current activity of Iran’s centrifuges. Where did he get that secret information? Well, just like you or me, he can read the periodic reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which are published on the web virtually the same day they are handed to member states. How did the IAEA get that “intelligence”? Not hard: they have inspectors in all the sites where Iran is producing enriched uranium. These inspectors, who make frequent surprise visits, keep cameras in place to watch every move, and they carefully measure Iran’s input of feed stock to the centrifuges and the output of low-enriched uranium, which is then placed under seal. You would think that would be worth mentioning, at least in passing, but it gets overlooked by virtually every journalist writing on this subject.

Like virtually all other commentators on this issue, Bergman slides over the fact that the IAEA consistently reports that Iran has diverted none of its uranium to military purposes. Like others, he focuses on the recent IAEA report, which was the most detailed to date in discussing Iran’s suspected experiments with military implications; but like others, he fails to mention that the suspect activity took place seven or more years ago and there is no reliable evidence that it has resumed. A problem, yes; an imminent threat, no.”

Click here to continue reading

The New York times reports that Israeli academics and intelligence officials are skeptical of the ferocity of Iranian retaliation tactics in the case of an Israeli strike and believe that possible measures, such as shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, would cause Iran to harm itself.  This belief is based on an analysis of Iran’s interests and previous actions, as well as the many over exaggerated threats presented in the past by Iraq and Hezbollah.  “A war is no picnic,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Israel Radio in November. But if Israel feels itself forced into action, the retaliation would be bearable, he said. “There will not be 100,000 dead or 10,000 dead or 1,000 dead. The state of Israel will not be destroyed.” (NY Times 01/27)

Oil industry see Iran sanctions benefitting China, hurting West

Despite sanctions, Iran will continue to sell oil at a similar volume, although the majority of exported oil will go to China.  Being one of Iran’s only remaining customers, the Chinese will be able to bargain for a significantly reduced price on oil.  The West is relying heavily on an increased output from Saudi Arabia to avoid a spike in oil prices, which would hurt an already deteriorating global economy.  (Chicago Tribune 01/27)

U.S.-Israel joint missile defense drill now slated for October 2012

The largest-ever joint missile defense drill between the U.S. and Israel has been rescheduled for this Fall after news leaked that it had been suspended.  The drill, in which several thousand U.S. military personnel will be stationed in Israel, has been perceived as a signal to the region of the U.S. and Israel’s unity and resolve regarding Iran.  Auster Challenge’s abrupt cancellation two weeks ago fueled suspicions of a rift between the two countries in their approach to Iran, though U.S. and Israeli officials insisted it was due only to technical issues.  (Business Insider 01/27) 

EU banks end financing of Iran grain shipments

 EU banks will no longer finance the trade of grains, oilseeds, maize, and other products to Iran.  Iran is among the top ten global importers of maize, and Ukraine, one of its main suppliers of maize, have decided to stall further shipments.  “It is now a fact that no EU banks will do trade financing for Iran destination cargoes of grains, oilseeds or whatever,” one European grain trader said.  “The bottom line is it is very difficult to work trading to Iranian destinations through banking systems. Some Iranian buyers are seeking to use other payment methods avoiding letters of credit, basically direct payment, but this is unworkable for large-size shipments.” (Reuters 01/27)

Iran turns to Iraq to diminish effectiveness of sanctions

 Iraq and its long porous border have provided a new smuggling alternative for the Iranian government.  Prior to 2010, Iran used the UAE and Oman to smuggle strategic banned goods, but this became increasingly difficult due to U.S. pressure.  Iran has employed the use of Iraqi Kurdish smuggling routes, private banks, front companies to maintain its black market economy.  (Guardian 01/27)

Iran cracks down on media/opposition ahead of March elections

 Iranian authorities have arrested ten journalists and bloggers since the start of the year.  Human Rights Watch reports that these arrests “appear to be part of the government’s most recent campaign to disrupt the free flow of information ahead of parliamentary elections.”  “All of the detainees have had some sort of association with reformist papers or websites critical of the government.” (CSM 01/27)

Notable opinion: 

In her piece, “What Happens to the Characters of A Separation After Iran Sanctions?”, Iranian-American writer Maryam Zar assesses the impact of sanctions on ordinary Iranians through the context of Asghar Farhadi’s Oscar nominated film:

Indulge for a moment, in a little imagination: It is January 2013 and the Western hemisphere’s embargo on Iranian oil has begun to have an impact on the nation’s economy. What happens to Termeh, Simin and Nader from the award-winning movie A Separation, under the sanctions?

Let’s take a peek inside Iran.

Nader, the doting father who works at a bank has lost his job. The banking sector in Iran has taken a huge hit as a result of the sanctions, so his position was eliminated. Their hard-studying, bright-minded daughter can no longer attend the private school she went to during the movie, and is now encumbered beneath a black robe in a segregated public school in Central Tehran where she is often subjected to verbal abuse for not being pious enough or for coming from a liberal family. She has been detained a few times for her involition to conform to the strict regulations of the school and is descending into depression. Simin, the feisty Mom with visions of a life outside of Iran’s borders, has been forced to move back in with her estranged husband and is not only caring for his Alzheimer’s stricken Dad, but has taken a part-time job as a maid for one of the neighbors, as the family struggles to make ends meet. She is bitter and frustrated, and her mental state is taking its toll on the entire family — not least on the 13 year old daughter who needs her mother more than ever.

To read the full piece click here.

 Additional Notable News:

Gold prices in Iran, after their sharp fall on Wednesday amidst the rise in interest rates to 21%, fell again slightly on Thursday to 800,000 Toman (about $470).

Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Assembly of Experts, said in a lecture, “Clergy should be independent and should not be a political plaything.”

In a threat to China, Nasser Soudani of Parliament’s Energy Committee: “If China enters the phase of sanctions…it will be [removed] from all of its projects in Iran. This will inflict heavy and considerable loss on China’s economy.”

Iranian border guards killed six Pakistanis after they crossed the border near Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province.

 According to a report drafted by the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran is unlikely to take steps toward building a nuclear weapon in 2012 due to their inability to produce a sufficient amount of weapons-grade uranium.  According to the report, “Iran’s essential challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough weapons-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons.”  The effectiveness of airstrikes was also disputed by the report, which said strikes would be “unlikely to destroy Iran’s main capability,” and would allow Iran to rapidly rebuild their capabilities.  (Reuters 01/26)

IMF warns Iran sanctions could increase price of oil 20-30%

 The IMF has stated that Western financial sanctions on Iranian oil could result in a 20-30% hike in global pricing.  According to an IMF statement to the G20, “ A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would constitute, and be perceived by markets to presage, sharply heightened global geopolitical tension involving a much larger and unprecedented disruption.”  The IMF says this shock could be significantly greater if Iran goes ahead with its threat to blockade the Straits of Hormuz.  (BBC 01/26)

U.S. Joint Chief Chairman: Talk of Military Options on Iran “Premature”

General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview with National Journal, discussed his recent trip to Israel and his current thinking regarding Iran.  ”I do think the path we’re on—the economic sanctions and the diplomatic pressure—does seem to me to be having an effect,” he said. “I just think that its premature to be deciding that the economic and diplomatic approach is inadequate.”

He also warned, ”A conflict with Iran would be really destabilizing, and I’m not just talking from the security perspective.  It would be economically destabilizing.”  Dempsey explained the U.S. position on Iran as, “We are determined to prevent them from acquiring that weapon, but that doesn’t mean dropping bombs necessarily.  I personally believe that we should be in the business of deterring as the first priority.”  (National Journal 01/26)

Israel’s defense minister calls for stronger sanctions against Iran

 Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, told Israel radio that he doubts the recent unprecedented EU oil embargo is enough to convince Iran to abandon their nuclear program.  These remarks came shortly after those made on Monday by Prime Minister Netanyahu who said, “Sanctions will have to be evaluated on the basis of results.  As of today, Iran is continuing to produce nuclear weapons without hindrance.”  However, an Israeli intelligence assessment last week stated that Iran still has not decided to build a nuclear weapon, which is the same assessment as the U.S. intelligence community.  Israeli officials continue to call for tougher sanctions, stating that if current sanctions are ineffective, a military option must be exercised.  (Guardian 01/26)

IAEA inspectors to visit Iranian nuclear facilities

A team of IAEA nuclear inspectors is set to visit Iran on Saturday to request access to various sites, officials, and documents related to Iran’s nuclear program.  While many Western diplomats are skeptical of the talks and believe that Iran is using them as a stalling tactic, others believe that Iran may be sincere in order to keep diplomatic channels open and avoid further disciplinary measures.  Olli Heinonen, a former chief U.N. safeguards inspector, hopes that “at a minimum, the parties can agree on how to proceed in resolving outstanding issues, and that also includes the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program.”  (Reuters 01/26)

Ahmadinejad says Iran ready to restart nuclear talks

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that Iran is ready to restore negotiations with major global players, though it remains unclear if the Supreme Leader endorsed this position.  The U.S. and Iran have not held any negotiations since January 2011, under the auspice of the U.N. Security Council P5+1 group.  Ahmadinejad blamed the breakdown on sanctions in a recent speech, saying “it is evident that those who resort to coercion are opposed to talks and always bring pretexts and blame us instead.”  (ABC 01/26)

In addition to Ahmadinejad’s statements, chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili says, “Iran is prepared to engage in dialogue…over the nuclear issue on the basis of mutual respect.”  (Reuters 01/26)

Iran takes measures to ease economic crisis

 On Wednesday, the Iranian economic minister proclaimed that deposit interest rates at local banks would be increased to 21%.  A World Bank report projected Iran’s GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2012, a .3% decrease from last year’s 3%.  However, this data is based on official figures provided by the Iranian government, which “do not reflect Iran’s economic situation.”  Iran’s economy is struggling due to unprecedented international pressure over its nuclear program as well as internal political infighting.  The Iranian rial has fallen in value by about 30% over the past month, and by 49% over the past year.   (Financial Times 01/26)

Turkish lender to continue handling oil payments to Iran

Turkish lender Halkbank says it will continue oil payments to Iran from its customers as long as international guidelines are followed.  Halkbank is Turkey’s sixth largest bank, and processes payments made by Turkey’s refinery as well as those made by Indian refiners and others.  Turkey is largely dependent on imports of hydrocarbons from Iran, making it wary to follow unilateral U.S. and EU sanctions.  Turkey opposed U.N. sanctions against Iran, but currently adheres to them.  (Reuters 01/26)

China criticizes EU ban on Iran oil

 Chinese officials have recently disapproved of the EU’s imposition of tougher sanctions on Iran’s oil industry and called for “measures conducive to regional peace and stability.”  Despite strong opposition to any efforts by Iran to produce nuclear weaponry, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao defended China’s decision to continue to buy Iranian crude, calling it a typical engagement in trade.  In a written statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry argued, “it is not a constructive approach to simply pile up the pressure and impose sanctions.” China is currently the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil.  (Reuters 01/26)

Notable opinion: 

In a Huffington Post op-ed, professor and senior fellow Michael Brenner discusses the U.S.’s desire to attain unrealizable objectives in dealing with Iran, while continuing to ignore fundamental realities of Iran’s situation:

 ”The drums are sounding for war on Iran. The leading Republican presidential candidates pledge military action as soon as they cross the threshold of the White House. The Obama administration sharpens its rhetoric in accompaniment to imposing coercive sanctions. It strong-arms its allies to stand with it in confrontation. Israel uses all of its formidable levers of influence to push the United States into war mode. All shades of the media work overtime to stoke fears in a manner reminiscent of the build-up to the Iraq invasion. Amidst all this noise and fury the one thing missing is a sober assessment of the problem and what are suitable approaches to addressing it. This unfortunately has become habitual in American foreign policy.”

To read the full piece click here.

Additional Notable News:

The Christian Science Monitor released an article outlining the history of repeated warnings made in regards to the imminent Iran nuclear threat over the past twenty-five years.

Shirin Ebadi, the 2003 Nobel Peace Laureate, called for the release of three opposition leaders, including Mr. Mir Hossein Mosuavi, in addition to a boycott of Iran’s March parliamentary elections to show “that the Islamic Republic of Iran lacks legitimacy.”

In an interview with BBC, Oman’s minister of foreign affairs, Yusif Bin Alawi, discusses the potential for a crisis between Iran and the West.

According to Khabar Online, the Iranian rial is currently trading at 17300:1 versus the dollar, a strengthening of currency brought about by increased interest rates.

In addition, the head of Iran’s central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, has announced a single exchange rate of 12260:1 to come into effect Sunday.

An Iranian F-14 fighter plane crashed today shortly after taking off near the Persian Gulf, although no explanation has been offered as to how the crash occurred.

New York Times magazine will run a cover story on whether an Israeli strike on Iran is imminent. According to the author, Ronen Bergman, ”After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012″ (New York Times Magazine 01/25).

Bergman is “one of a small circle of heavyweights in the Israeli media who spend a significant amount of time with the politicians, spies and generals who are going to make the ultimate decision” says Julian Borger in the Guardian.  But, he notes, Jeffrey Goldberg–who wrote an Atlantic cover story predicting Israel would strike Iran in 2011–thinks that Bergman’s assessment may be premature and that many of the officials quoted in Bergman’s piece are the same ones who convinced Goldberg that 2011 would be the year Israel would strike Iran.  Borger says, “Clearly, Israeli has a motive in conveying the impression that an attack might be imminent, to stir up urgency in the West to confront Iran. (The Guardian 01/25)

Iran to debate bill that would see an immediate halt to all European oil exports 

Iran may preempt a EU ban on Iranian oil, which will not go into effect for six months to avoid a cut off during peak winter months and to allow European states to find new suppliers. But Iran may decide to stop its European exports immediately.  ”Many Iranian lawmakers and officials have called for an immediate ban on oil exports to the European bloc before its ban fully goes into effect in July, arguing that the 27 EU nations account for only about 18 percent of Iran’s overall oil sales and would be hurt more by the decision than Iran.” (Washington Post 01/25)

U.S. sanctions cut off food, medicine and humanitarian goods to Iran

Cliff Burns assesses the impact of the U.S. decision to add Iran’s Bank Tejerat to its sanctions list, which now means that virtually every bank and port in Iran has been sanctioned by the U.S.

“The real impact of this is that this may well signal the end of legal exports of agricultural products, medicine and medical devices to Iran under the authority of the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000. Exports to Iran licensed by OFAC require that the exporter must deal directly with a non-Iranian bank and that the non-Iranian banking intermediary may not use an Iranian bank on the SDN List to complete the financial aspects of the transaction” (The Export Blog 01/24).

Notable Opinion

NIAC’s Trita Parsi discusses Iran and US relations in a piece that assesses the potential for a peaceful resolution in an op-ed for The Atlantic:

“The 30-year-old U.S.-Iran enmity is no longer a phenomenon; it is an institution. For three decades, politicians and bureaucrats in both countries have made careers out of demonizing each other. Firebrands in Iran have won political points by adding an ideological dimension to an already rooted animosity. Shrewd politicians, in turn, have shamelessly used ideology to advance their political objec­tives. Neighboring states in the Persian Gulf and beyond have taken advantage of this estrangement, often kindling the flames of division.

Israel and some of its supporters in the United States, in particular, have feared that a thaw in U.S. relations with Iran would come at the expense of America’s special friendship with the Jewish state.

But the strategic cost to the United States and Iran of this pro­longed feud has been staggering. Harming both and benefiting nei­ther, the U.S.-Iran estrangement has complicated Washington’s efforts to advance the peace process between the Israelis and Palestin­ians in the 1990s, win the struggle against al-Qaeda, or defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan and the insurgency in Iraq. Still, the strategic cost of this enmity has oftentimes been dwarfed by the domestic political cost to overcome it. In Washington, the political cost for attempting to resolve tensions with Iran has simply been too great and the political space too narrow to justify starting down a fraught and uncertain path to peace with Iran.”

Click here to read in full.

Other Notable News and Opinions:

Mark A.Heller of Tel Aviv University writes that not only is war inevitable but that a war between Europe and Iran has already begun.

Yasmin Alem provides her analysis of the current round of parliamentary elections in Iran.

Iran may not make good on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, but still has plenty of leverage in the Persian Gulf.

Following yesterday’s announcement of EU imposed sanctions, Australian Foreign Secretary Kevin Rudd stated that Australia would also stop importing Iranian oil.  Rudd acknowledged Australia’s imports of Iranian oil are already “negligible.”   (CNN 01/24)

Fitch: EU oil sanctions likely to increase prices

Fitch ratings evaluates that it is very likely that the EU oil embargo on Iran will increase oil prices, though it states markets may have already priced in much of the increase. Fitch notes that it is “difficult to predict at this stage” what effect U.S. extraterritorial sanctions will have, adding “the global oil market would have less flexibility in the event of large unexpected supply interruptions elsewhere, potentially sending oil prices much higher than current levels” if the sanctions are aggressively enforced. (Fitch Ratings 01/24)

Netanyahu argues Israel must not rely on others

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that Iran poses a grave threat to Israel and, citing the Holocaust, stated that ”that ultimately when there is threat to our existence, we must not leave our fate in the hands of others.” (Reuters 01/24)

UK increases naval presence in Persian Gulf

According to Defense Secretary Philip Hammond, the U.K. is considering sending additional naval resources to the Persian Gulf amidst rising tensions.  In a show of strength, the British Navy sent a frigate as part of an international flotilla traveling through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.    (BBC 01/24)

India may pay in gold for Iranian oil

India has decided to pay for Iran’s oil in gold, allowing it to sidestep Western sanctions and continue trade, according to an unconfirmed report on DEBKAfile and reprinted in Iran’s Press TV.   The report notes China may follow suit. (RT 01/24)

Iranians in Dubai concerned about sanctions

Iranians living in nearby Dubai are increasingly worried about the effects of the U.S. and EU financial sanctions.  About a third of Dubai’s population originates from Iran and many still maintain ties to their country of origin.  Financial sanctions have made it more difficult for Iranians in Dubai who wish to conduct business, mainly shipping, with Iran.  (BBC 01/23)

Iranians protest against satellite jamming

Iranians assembled to protest against the Iranian government’s use of censorship and satellite jamming at the World Radio Communication Conference in Geneva.  They called upon the conference’s organizer, the International Telecommunication Union, a UN agency, to take decisive steps to pressure the Iranian government into removing censorship.  (ICHRI 01/23)

Human Rights

Mohammad Soleimani, a well known literary translator, has been detained in Iran for reasons currently unknown.  According to his family, security guards accompanied him to his home following his court appearance, and searched the house, seizing documents and electronic devices before disappearing with him. (CNN 01/23)  

The former Chancellor of Tehran University, Dr. Mohammad Maleki, has been sent to Evin Prison.   He had previously been arrested several times, and was sentenced most recently to one year in prison for insulting Ayatollah Khamenei, although he was later acquitted.  (EA Worldview 01/24)

In addition, Yaser Yousefzadeh, a supporter of opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi, was arrested at his residence in northern Iran.  (EA Worldview 01/24)

Notable Opinion:

In an op-ed for The Atlantic, author and journalist Robert Wright argues the Republican candidates policies on Iran are likely to lead to war:

The position of the three people who might be the Republican presidential nominee can be summarized as follows: (1) If Iran doesn’t meet our demands we must bomb it! (2) We must make demands that are essentially impossible for Iran to meet! The rest, as they say, may be history.

To read the full piece click here.

Additional Notable News:

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, a major Indian oil refinery, states it may reduce its purchases of Iranian oil due to increased payment problems caused by extensive economic sanctions imposed upon Iran.

Peter Jenkins, Britain’s permanent representative to the IAEA from 2001–06, argues that the international community should seek an inspections based solution to the conflict with Iran.

Ali Akbar Javanfekr, a controversial media aide to President Ahmadinejad, accused Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff of causing relations to deteriorate between the two countries.

All 27-member states have agreed to impose a ban on Iranian oil. Full implementation begins on July 1.  In response, an Iranian member of Parliament urged Iran to immediately cut off sales to the EU, in order to disrupt EU oil supply before the planned July date. (Reuters 01/23)

In addition, two other Parliamentarians again warned that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for oil sanctions. (AP 01/23)

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 1.2% to $111.14 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the US reference, rose 1.3 per cent to $99.59 a barrel. (Financial Times 01/23)

Iranian bank Tejarat sanctioned 

The Obama administration has imposed sanctions on Iran’s third largest bank, Bank Tejarat.  All of Iran’s largest state-owned banks have now been blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury.  In addition, an affiliate, Belarus-based Trade Capital Bank, was also sanctioned. (Reuters 01/23) 

IAEA confirms visit to Iran, aims to “resolve all outstanding substantive issue” 

“The Agency team is going to Iran in a constructive spirit, and we trust that Iran will work with us in that same spirit,” Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA told Reuters last week the visit would take place from January 29-31 and that his country was open to discuss “any issues” of interest for the U.N. agency. “The overall objective of the IAEA is to resolve all outstanding substantive issues,” the IAEA statement added. (Reuters 01/23)

Russia hopeful for renewed Iran talks

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Monday that he believes there is a good chance that talks between global powers and Iran could resume, despite a planned EU oil embargo and other sources of tension.  (Reuters 01/23)

Rial Declines Sharply

Iran’s currency, the Rial, has fallen sharply to 23,000 per $1 US dollar — a 15% decline.  Gold prices have also increased significantly. (Enduring America 01/23)

Notable Opinion:

Time magazine’s Tony Karon examines the package that the U.S. is expected to offer Iran should diplomatic talks commence, and finds it unlikely to succeed:

Yahoo diplomatic correspondent Laura Rozen reported last week that insiders were suggesting  that Western powers will measure Iran’s “seriousness” in the coming talks by its willingness to halt enrichment of uranium to 20%, and turn over its existing stockpile of uranium enriched to that level.

…

It doesn’t take a clairvoyant to see that Iran is highly unlikely to accept a deal under which it gives Western powers something they want but leaves the latest, most damaging sanctions on Iran’s oil exports still in place, instead simply holding off on another round of UN sanctions — which are far less painful, and which the Western powers are unable to persuade Russia and China to substantially tighten.

Click here to read in full.

Other Notable News:

Muhammid Sahimi suggests that a growing rift can be seen developing in the Revolutionary Guard.

The P5+1 released the  details of a letter sent to Iran last October demonstrating a willingness to hold talks with Iran amidst tough sanctions and speculation of a military conflict (Reuters 01/20).

Details of U.S. letter to Iran emerge

Laura Rozen reports the Obama administration used three channels of communication to deliver a message to Iran’s Supreme Leader regarding “red lines in the Strait of Hormuz” and conveying that the U.S. and its allies “remain committed to a diplomatic solution,” with Iran.  They sent the letter through the Swiss Ambassador to Iran, through the UN, and through Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Rozen also reports that European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton’s office has released her October letter to Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, which outlined proposed terms for nuclear talks (Yahoo 01/20).

Sanctions Watch 

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that “time is running out” for diplomacy with Iran and called for China and Russia to back increased sanctions on Iran.  ”We need stronger, more decisive sanctions that stop the purchase of Iranian oil and freeze the assets of the central bank, and those who don’t want that will be responsible for the risks of a military conflict,” Sarkozy stated. (Reuters 01/20).

According to Reuters the Turkish refiner Tupras plans to cut its dependence on Iranian oil imports. Tupras officials are planning to meet with Saudi Arabia authorities this month to discuss alternative oil sources (Reuters 01/19).

The EU states have failed to agree on details of a planned embargo on Iran oil.  There was disagreement regarding the length of a planned grace period that would allow states to fulfill existing contracts for a period of time after the embargo (Reuters 01/19).

Senators Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Robert Menendez (D-NJ) sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warning him not to weaken a law prohibiting foreign institutions from dealing with Iran’s central bank. “An unevenly applied interpretation would … call into question the seriousness of the sanctions policy and send mixed signals to both Iran and our allies,” both senators said (Reuters 01/19).

Reuters reports the Japan has told U.S. officials that it intends to keep cutting imports of Iranian oil (Reuters 01/20).

Accusation over Iran scientist assassination 

Iran’s deputy U.N. ambassador Eshagh Al Habib said there is suspicion that the terrorist circles that carried out the assassination of Iranian scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan used intelligence obtained from UN bodies. Habib said the UN might have played a role in leaking information about Iran’s nuclear facilities and scientist (Reuters 01/19).

On Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei visited the families of two of the five scientists assassinated.

Russia and Iran trade domestic currency

Iranian ambassador to Russia Seyed Sajjadi said that Iran and Russia have started using their domestic currencies in bilateral trade, replacing the U.S. dollar in light of U.S. sanctions (Reuters 01/20).

Notable opinion: 

In an op-ed for CNN, president of the National Iranian American Council Trita Parsi discusses the recent dynamics of US-Israel relations over Iran:

Publicly, the two sides claim to share a common objective with Iran, though they may assess risks differently. In reality, the divisions are much deeper. Israel is firmly committed to the zero-enrichment objective espoused by the George W. Bush administration, i.e. that the only acceptable way to prevent Iranian bomb is by preventing it from having nuclear technology, period. “Enrichment in Iran is certainly unacceptable,” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told me in October 2010.

The Obama administration has left this issue vague, neither rejecting nor accepting this red line. Israel fears that in a final agreement, the Obama White House would accept enrichment in Iran, a fear fueled by the administration’s attempt to exchange Iranian low enriched uranium for fuel pads for a research reactor in Tehran earlier in 2009. Both France and Israel argued that the deal would legitimize Iranian enrichment. In Israel’s view, Obama has made America’s red lines flexible and unreliable.

To read the full piece click here.

Additional Notable News:

The Guardian reports that Iranian state broadcaster Press TV has been forced off the air in the UK.

Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak to discuss Iran’s nuclear program.

On Thursday, the U.S. Navy said that a U.S. navy vessel aided a group of Iranian mariners near the Persian Gulf.

U.S. officials said they have uncovered efforts by Iran to help Syria cover up its oil exports in order to circumvent U.S. and European embargos

A 5.5 earthquake struck the Iranian city of Neyshabur injuring at least 110 people.

A  a conservative Iranian lawmaker, Ali Motahari, claims that the U.S. has sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader proposing direct talks. The Obama administration has denied the claim. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast claims that the proposal for direct talks was embedded in the U.S. letter warning Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz (ABC 01/18).  

CNN reports that the United States has suggested creating a direct line of communication with Iran in order to prevent any escalating miscalculations between the two countries (CNN 01/18).

Turkey’s foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu, at a joint news conference with Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, said that Turkey is prepared to host nuclear talks between Iran and Western countries. He urged for negotiations to begin immediately (Washington Post 01/19).

U.S. crafting new “confidence building measure” with Iran

The U.S. is crafting a new diplomatic proposal that would require Iran to stop enriching uranium to 20% and to give up its existing stockpile of 20% uranium  (Yahoo News 01/18).

EU set to approve central bank and oil sanctions

EU foreign ministers are expected to agree on an oil embargo against Iran and a freeze on the assets of its central bank at a meeting scheduled for Monday, according to French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe (Reuters 01/19). 

The director general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, said that the U.N. would press for full Iranian cooperation in meetings with Iranian officials. An IAEA delegation is set to seek explanations about allegations regarding Iran’s nuclear program (Reuters 01/19).

Meanwhile, Deputy House Whip Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), returning from a trip to the U.S.’s Gulf allies, said there is widespread concern about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and support for sanctions, but great reservation and worry about a possible military attack against Iran (Think Progress 01/18).

Japan, China statements on Iran oil

China’s premier Wen Jiabao, at a press conference in Qatar, defended their oil trade with Iran while warning against Iran developing and acquiring a nuclear weapon (The Guardian 01/19). Meanwhile, Japan has said that it is likely to reduce Iranian crude purchases over the next three months (Reuters 01/19).

Former Revolutionary Guard commander criticizes Iranian government

A high-ranking former Iranian commander, Retired Rear Adm. Hossein Alaei, has sparked protest and anger in Iran for publishing a letter perceived to be critical of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. In the letter, Alaei implicitly compared the recent government crackdowns on the opposition to the repression during the time of the shah. Alaei publicly expressed regret for having written the letter after angry mobs, supporters of Khamenei, attacked his home (Washington Post 01/18).

Notable opinion: 

In a Politico op-ed, author and journalist Hooman Majd discusses the 5 main U.S. misconceptions about Iran:

Top five, 10 or 100 lists are standard at the end of the year. Though the Iranian year doesn’t end for roughly two months, given the escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, with threats and counter threats over the Strait of Hormuz — to say nothing of most GOP presidential candidates’ views on what to do about Iran — it might be useful to compile one on the growing Iran crisis, early 2012 here and late 1390 there.

To read the full piece click here.

Additional Notable News:

Three prominent journalists have been arrested in Iran ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections.

The New York Times reports that Iran’s currency fell to its lowest level ever against the dollar on Wednesday.

Nato’s secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has urged Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar, during a trip to Turkey, warned Arab states against aligning themselves too closely with the United States.

Israeli officials will reportedly present an intelligence assessment next week that Iran has not yet decided to pursue a nuclear weapon. This comes as the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey visits Israel next week. Additionally, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that Israel is “very far off” from making a decision about a military strike against Iran. (Haaretz 01/18).

Obama has followed Bush’s Iran policy says former top State official

Nicholas Burns, the United States Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs during the George W. Bush administration said that the Obama administration’s policy “has been very tough with Iran,” and “has essentially followed President Bush’s policy towards Iran in President Bush’s second term.” The statement comes amidst allegations by the GOP presidential candidates that president Obama’s Iran policy has been weak (Think Progress 01/17).

Mixed signals over Iran nuclear talks

Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has said that there are negotiations underway concerning the venue of date of nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 (Reuters 01/18). IAEA representatives will Iran’s IAEA envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh said that Iran is ready to discuss “any issues” with the IAEA. (Reuters 01/17).

But a EU spokesman denied that there are new negotiations underway for talks, and anonymous diplomats called Iran’s claims “propaganda”. A British foreign office spokesman said, “There are no dates or concrete plans because Iran has yet to demonstrate clearly that it is willing to respond to Baroness Ashton’s letter and negotiate without preconditions” (Reuters 01/18).

India, Japan convey opposition to sanctions

Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said that India is not seeking a waiver from U.S. sanctions on Iran’s central bank, which penalizes financial institutions who deal with Iran’s Central Bank. “We have accepted sanctions which are made by the United Nations. Other sanctions do not apply to individual countries,” said Mathai. “We continue to buy oil from Iran” (Reuters 01/17).

UK Chancellor George Osborne and Japan’s prime minister discussed the euro zone crisis and how they can work together to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon (The Guardian 01/18). Japan’s finance minister Jun Azumi said that U.S. sanctions on Iran, if imposed immediately, could have a ‘tremendous’ impact on Japan’s economy and voiced concern over the effectiveness of sanctions (AP 01/18). 

According to EU diplomats, the Danish presidency has proposed a full embargo on Iranian oil beginning July 1^st, although there is no agreement yet.  This would give member states almost 6 months to fulfill existing contracts (Reuters 01/17).

Russia considers a war with Iran unacceptable

On Tuesday, Russia’s deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov said “Russia would consider any use of force against the territory of Iran unacceptable.” Russia will also expand its annual military exercises around the premise of a war that begins with an US-Iran conflict. Russia also criticized sanctions against Iran and said it would oppose any new UN sanction resolutions (Christian Science Monitor 01/17).  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov said that a military attack against Iran would have disastrous consequences and trigger a chain reaction (NY Times 01/18). He also said sanctions and talks of a potential attack would undermine necessary negotiations (Huffington Post 01/18).

Notable opinion: 

In a Huffington Post op-ed, Maryam Zar warns against repeating the same policy mistakes with Iran that were made with Iraq:

Surprisingly however, no sooner have we encased the flag in Baghdad, that we are drumming a dull beat toward another war — this time, in a battle ground just next door: Iran.

[…]

A generation ago the U.S. placed its first round of sanctions against Iraq. Those left a population malnourished and disempowered, and angry at the U.S. Twenty years later when the U.S. invaded Iraq to supposedly liberate them, we were met with a resentful population that was distrusting of our motives. The bitter battle that ensued left a nation that was unmistakably once the cradle of civilization, in ruin. Today, Iraq is comprised largely of a hungry and uneducated populace that is willing to turn more readily to extremism than to the hard work of building a democracy.

Yet we are walking quickly toward risking the same outcome in Iran.

To read the full piece click here.

Additional Notable News:

In an op-ed for the Christian Science Monitor, John Limbert and Bruce laingen list 5 reasons why a war with Iran must be avoided.

Former CIA acting director John McLaughlin warned that a war with Iran “would be a very bad option” (CNN 01/17).

Meanwhile, Iraqi Oil Minister Abdul-Karim Elaibi will travel to Iran tomorrow in order to urge Iran to not close the strategic Strait of Hormuz (AP 01/18).

Iran’s Ministry of Education will soon publish separate school textbooks for boys and girls.

The New York Times reports that Iran has ordered extra security for its scientists in response to the assassination last week.

Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood has rejected a proposal by Iran to mediate a political solution in Syria.