- 29 October 2009
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- 3 Comments
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- Diplomacy, Events in Iran, Nuclear file, Sanctions
Confidence is key
29 October 2009 Posted By Patrick Disney
Hillary Mann Leverett–fresh off her dynamite appearance alongside Trita at the J Street Conference’s Iran panel–has an article in today’s Foreign Policy magazine online in which she argues that the delay over Iran’s decision to ship its uranium stockpile out of the country stems from the inherent mistrust that has plagued US-Iran relations for decades. This, more than any internal political divisions in the post-election atmosphere, accounts for the IRI’s waffling back and forth over the proposal.
If the Iranian leadership believes that the United States is interested in a fundamental realignment of U.S.-Iranian relations and is prepared to live with the Islamic Republic as it stands, a consensus in favor of the reactor fuel deal could be forged in Tehran. …But I am skeptical that the United States has provided the security guarantees that would be needed to assuage Iranian concerns about Washington’s ultimate intentions.
Iran’s official response to the proposed nuclear deal is expected today (the LA Times notes Ahmadinejad’s speech this morning which skirts the issue somewhat but may be intended to soften the ground for Iran’s official acceptance of the deal), but like always it will be incredibly difficult to get a straight “yes” or “no” answer out of Tehran. Most likely the response will involve some sort of a request for an amendment to the deal.
But this decision won’t be made in a vacuum–and here is where Hillary’s point is incredibly important. The atmosphere between Iran and the West is rife with mistrust. Recent diplomatic progress has helped rebuild some of that confidence, but both sides are still incredibly wary of the other. This is why we’ve been so nervous about recent Congressional actions to approve tough sanctions this week.
In the already toxic atmosphere, the last thing the US needs to do is insert yet more doubt in our willingness to negotiate in good faith. Sanctioning Iran while the talks are teetering on the edge of progress will send the signal to Iran that it doesn’t matter what concessions they make at the negotiating table–Congress will punish them anyway. Thus, they have no incentive to make concessions in the first place, since they’ll end up getting hurt either way.
That’s a recipe for talks to break down.
We can only hope that Tehran is tuning out the background noise coming from the US Congress long enough to accept the proposal. Rebuilding trust after thirty years is going to take some leaps of faith–and they’ll most likely get harder before things get easier.
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{PS I’d also like to note that Hillary Mann Leverett and Flynt Leverett–both renowned Iran experts–have started a fantastic new blog called The Race for Iran. They have tons of great material up already, so click the link, bookmark it, and take a look!}
3 Responses to “Confidence is key”
haha, and the US is suppose to trust Iran who yells “Death to America” every week for 30 years.
Imagine if we had a death to Iran day in US, the kind of stuff Trita would say. Those neocons, those war mongers, haha. But it is ok for Iran to do it.
The Iranian people cant even trust their goverment for a vote and now he wants the world wants to trust Iran on nuclear negotiations.
Trita your doomed.
John, go back to reading the national review and weekly standard. This blog is too factual for your narrow world view.
Let’s be realistic about this, Matt. The congressional track is primarily aimed at torpedoing any reconciliation between the US and Iran. Why else would AIPAC be pushing so hard for it? No further proof is needed than that.
As for the Iranians and their “trust” issue. Please, don’t for a minute try and sell the Iranians short. You’re not dealing with a group of softies, like that old Khatami bunch. Say what you will about their politics and post-election reactions, the Ahmadinejad group is a lot more capable when it comes to dealing with the West. Just look at the maneuvering so far: splitting off France, the public debate in Parliament, the signals in the state media, Ahmadinejad’s speech in Mashad. So far they seem capable in their negotiating; certainly a lot more than many in the West would have expected. How many were actually expecting them to simply cave? One of the other Iran analysts I personally work with did, but I told him it wouldn’t be happening that way.
The hint now is that Iran wants to make its own MEU using its current stock of LEU under IAEA supervision. You know, under the terms of the NPT, the IAEA is supposed to technically assist its signatories in developing this peaceful application of technology. Quite a bargaining position, wouldn’t you say?