- 24 November 2009
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- 4 Comments
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- Diplomacy, Events in Iran, Nuclear file
Iran Prepared to Exchange Uranium on its Soil
24 November 2009 Posted By Lloyd Chebaclo
AP reports:
“Iran said Tuesday it was ready to exchange its low enriched uranium with a higher enriched material, but only on its own soil, to guarantee the West follows through with promises to give the fuel”
This position is being taken as Iran’s “official” response to the IAEA-brokered nuclear proposal born of talks among p-5+1 countries in October.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Iran had sent its response on the proposal to the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany, saying it wants a simultaneous exchange on Iranian soil.
“Iran’s answer is given. I think the other side has received it,” said Mehmanparast. “The creation of a 100 percent guarantee for delivery of the fuel is important for Iran.”
Another Iranian official, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s atomic energy agency, confirmed the details, saying that in Iran’s view such an exchange was an “objective guarantee.”
Details on the text of the response are forthcoming.
While the response is not quite what the p-5+1 had hoped to get, this development still marks progress with Iran. The deal helps by putting time back on the nuclear clock. The more proliferation-resistant fuel rods Iran would receive in exchange for giving up its raw stockpile of LEU would lengthen the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapons.
Now…before any of us get ahead of ourselves, we should caution: if Iran decides in the coming days to alter its response, waffle back and forth, or vacillate in any way–such as requesting the exchange be made over multiple installments–the West would be absolutely correct to excoriate Iran for going back on its word. It’s bad enough that this entire process–which was intended to build confidence between the two sides–has done nothing of the sort. Now is not the time to end diplomatic engagement with Iran when it appears that some compromise deal may actually be struck. After all, such a deal would form the basis for future cooperation and actual trust-building.
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It was also reported today that the p-5+1 have prepared a resolution critical of Iran’s nuclear defiance for the next IAEA board meeting, calling for more openness about is nuclear activities particularly in light of the revelation of the Fardo facility near Qom. Notably, Russia and China, who have been resistant in the past to confrontational positions on Iran, stifling calls for more sanctions, join in the criticism. Iran’s response today might give pause to delay those considering moving the resolution, in favor of hammering out a more concrete deal.
4 Responses to “Iran Prepared to Exchange Uranium on its Soil”
How is this an opening? Simultaneous exchange on Iranian soil defeats the entire purpose of the deal, which was to find breathing room to strike a broader deal. Under Iran’s proposal, they can just keep producing additional uranium in the meantime to replace whatever is shipped out. In effect, their response is a no.
@ DrS.
I don’t believe the original Geneva proposal required the halting of enrichment on Iranian soil either.
I agree, it didn’t, but after taking away 70% of their stockpile, it would take an estimate of a year to replenish that stockpile, giving breathing room to make a long term deal. Iran’s proposal defeats the entire purpose of the deal.
That was addressed in the analysis by this paragraph:
[…]Now…before any of us get ahead of ourselves, we should caution: if Iran decides in the coming days to alter its response, waffle back and forth, or vacillate in any way–such as requesting the exchange be made over multiple installments–the West would be absolutely correct to excoriate Iran for going back on its word.[…]
If the same %70 exchange can be agreed upon to be made on Iranian soil then the effect will be the same.
By the way, are you sure about it only taking a year for Iran to produce that much low enriched uranium? It took years for them to accumulate the current stockpile and last I heard Natanz is working at only partial capacity while Fordoo is currently just “a hole in a mountain”.
All things considered, I think there exists far more breathing room than is generally being admitted. Even with the stockpile intact the Iranians are no where near achieving a weapons capability (even if the national intelligence estimate is wrong and there still is a covert weapons program). The very fact that they can’t even stock their research reactors with medium enriched uranium should make that clear.
Ultimately, the only real way to allay fears of a weapons program is for increased inspections through Iran’s acceptance and implementation of the additional protocol of the non-proliferation treaty. Iran on the other hand desires an end to its economic and political isolation and recognition of its weight in the region (which is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore). That exchange is the real holy grail of these negotiations. The current one is just a confidence and trust building exercise and if it’s going to succeed, both sides will need to accept a few compromises and take a few chances. Hopefully that will be the case because there really doesn’t seem to be any other solution to this problem.