- 30 December 2009
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- 2 Comments
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- Events in Iran, Iran Election 2009
“If they do not accept you, you do not force them to — and you leave.”
30 December 2009 Posted By Patrick Disney
Ali Rafiei/AFP
In July, much of the discussion revolved around the role Rafsanjani might play in a national reconciliation bid. Since the violence this past weekend, editorial pages are abuzz about the possibility that the regime might soon topple, but few have taken the time to question how such monumental changes might actually occur within Iran’s political system.
A dear friend and colleague of ours has written in to discuss just that:
Today, after a meeting with the Majlis, Iran’s Prosecutor General said that “leaders of the sedition” should be prosecuted. On top of their sedition list is Fa’ezeh Hashemi (Rafsanjani’s daughter), along with Karrubi and Mousavi. Rafsanjani will be more likely to go against Khamenei’s approach if his daughter is prosecuted, jailed or killed (as Musavi’s nephew was Sunday).
On December 5 (the Shiite holiday Eid-e Ghadir), Rafsanjani delivered a speech that was strikingly similar to the one he gave on July 17th–only this time his disagreement with Khamenei was clearer. Rafsanjani said that it is “impossible to rule society by suppressing it,” and that the Prophet Mohammad told Imam Ali that “if the people accept you, then you rule. If they do not accept you, you do not force them to and you leave.”
Several sources claim that powerful players like Iran’s Minister of Intelligence are getting ready to go after Rafsanjani himself. These players want Rafsanjani expelled as Chairman of the Expediency Council.
Even if his daughter’s being targeted for arrest won’t force Rafsanjani to choose sides and join the Green Movement, the hardliners might soon make the choice for him.
2 Responses to ““If they do not accept you, you do not force them to — and you leave.””
So far, there have been no major earthquakes at the top, only tremors.
Take for example the fact that despite the level of violence and destruction in Tehran during Ashura, neither the military (such as the IRGC’s elite Seyed-ol-Shohada Corps) was mobilized, nor was martial law or even localized martial law declared; this in the face of arson set by protesters to at least 9 residential buildings, 9 IRIPF vehicles, 7 business shops, 2 banks and 3 power stations, not to mention dozens of police officers injured.
Any Western municipality would have declared full martial law in order to best reassert law and order, and in many instances would have activated the military. On a personal note, during the aftermath of Katrina, a member of my extended family, who is a high ranking state law enforcement official, was activated (like many LE officers around the country) and airlifted into New Orleans. They were all issued AR-15 assault rifles for street-by-street patrol duties, with specific instructions on the potential use of lethal force. And, as we all know, the military was also brought in to restore order.
If in the face of what took place during Ashura, Iran’s leadership wasn’t willing to rock the boat by introducing dramatic steps such as martial law and military intervention, it shouldn’t realistically be expected to introduce major steps against very top political figures associated with opposition. Besides, these figures pretty much operate as cheerleaders to the street level opposition and little more. However, there does remain the potential for undirected vigilante type attack. (For his part, I believe Mousavi retains his state appointed security staff, while Karoubi is now down to his own personal guards.)
This all said, expect a lot more arrests targeted at figures identified with SAVAMA’s list of 80+ subversive groups, as well as any individual(s) associated with civil disorders staged during Ashura.
Expect arrests, torture, rape, killing, suppression of the media, the beating of innocent unarmed women, etc etc etc… another day in the life of the dictatorship