- 26 January 2012
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- NIAC round-up
Iran unlikely to begin building nuclear weapon in 2012
According to a report drafted by the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran is unlikely to take steps toward building a nuclear weapon in 2012 due to their inability to produce a sufficient amount of weapons-grade uranium. According to the report, “Iran’s essential challenge remains developing a secure capability to make enough weapons-grade uranium, likely for at least several nuclear weapons.” The effectiveness of airstrikes was also disputed by the report, which said strikes would be “unlikely to destroy Iran’s main capability,” and would allow Iran to rapidly rebuild their capabilities. (Reuters 01/26)
IMF warns Iran sanctions could increase price of oil 20-30%
The IMF has stated that Western financial sanctions on Iranian oil could result in a 20-30% hike in global pricing. According to an IMF statement to the G20, “ A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would constitute, and be perceived by markets to presage, sharply heightened global geopolitical tension involving a much larger and unprecedented disruption.” The IMF says this shock could be significantly greater if Iran goes ahead with its threat to blockade the Straits of Hormuz. (BBC 01/26)
U.S. Joint Chief Chairman: Talk of Military Options on Iran “Premature”
General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an interview with National Journal, discussed his recent trip to Israel and his current thinking regarding Iran. “I do think the path we’re on—the economic sanctions and the diplomatic pressure—does seem to me to be having an effect,” he said. “I just think that its premature to be deciding that the economic and diplomatic approach is inadequate.”
He also warned, “A conflict with Iran would be really destabilizing, and I’m not just talking from the security perspective. It would be economically destabilizing.” Dempsey explained the U.S. position on Iran as, “We are determined to prevent them from acquiring that weapon, but that doesn’t mean dropping bombs necessarily. I personally believe that we should be in the business of deterring as the first priority.” (National Journal 01/26)