Senate passes sanctions on Iran’s central bank
The Senate voted 100-0 yesterday to include the Kirk-Menendez amendment to the Defense Authorization Act that would force the President to sanction Iran’s central bank, with some limited exceptions (NIAC 12/1).  The broader bill was passed by the Senate, but the President has threatened to veto it due to concerns about provisions regarding detention of American citizens linked to terrorism (Washington Post 12/1).

Before the vote,  the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hosted Administration officials at a hearing in which they strongly warned against the proposed Iran amendment.  Josh Rogin wrote in Foreign Policy’s The Cable, after being told by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman and Treasury Undersecretary David Cohen that the Kirk-Menendez amendment was going to be counterproductive to U.S. policy objectives, that Sen. Robert Menendez was “livid” (Foreign Policy 12/2).

The National Iranian American Council released a press release yesterday criticizing the passing of the Kirk Menendez amendment, stating “The Senate ignored warnings of dire economic consequences for America and its allies, and of disastrous humanitarian consequences for the people of Iran.  On all sides, there appears to only be the political will to escalate, with utter disregard for the ramifications.” (NIAC 12/1).

Iran war watch
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who recently said that Israel is not currently planning to attack Iran, posited that a military strike may become the only option for dealing with Iran (Huffington Post 12/1).  Meanwhile, Yossi Melman says that the sabotage, mysterious explosions and assassinations of nuclear scientists signify that “war with Iran has already begun” (Haaretz 12/2).  Former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan says that an “Israeli attack on Iran must be stopped to avert catastrophe” (Haaretz 12/1).

David Miliband and Nader Mousavizadeh argued in an op-ed that a war with Iran would be exceedingly destructive, and as such the international community needs to make a serious push for diplomacy to prevent “sleepwalking into war” (Financial Times 12/2).  In contrast, Iraq War advocate Max Boot writes in the LA Times that the only way to prevent a nuclear armed Iran is through military strikes, even though he acknowledges that such strikes would only temporarily delay Iran’s nuclear program (LA Times 12/1).

EU sanctions update
The Financial Times reports that “Italy, Spain and Greece – the biggest buyers of Iranian oil in Europe–had dropped their opposition to an [oil] embargo but had asked for time to find alternative supplies” (Financial Times 12/2).  Energy market analysts meanwhile are concerned that Iran could preempt such a move by implementing an oil embargo against Europe now–when energy use is at its peak–before Europe imposes its own embargo early next year when they can better mitigate the loss of Iranian supplies.  The article explains that this could be problematic for Europe because they would not have the time they need to find replacement sources for the Iranian oil it currently imports (Financial Times 12/2).

European ambassadors called back from Iran
In the wake of Tuesday’s attack on the UK embassy in Iran, several EU countries have voiced their disapproval.  The UK has not only pulled all of its diplomats from the country, but has closed the Iranian embassy in London, though this is not yet permanent.  The NY Times is reporting that Netherlands, Germany, and France have recalled their ambassadors, with Italy considering a similar move, and Norway closing its embassy “as a precaution” (NY Times 12/1).  The same article warns that such steps are likely to complicate any future attempts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program, as such diplomatic lines have served in the past as a means of contact especially for the U.S., which hasn’t had an embassy in Iran for over 30 years (despite what Michelle Bachmann may think).  Barbara Slavin writes that, while the downgrading of diplomatic relations with Iran might help further isolate Iran, this comes at the cost of increasing tensions that could spiral out of control (Slavin IPS 12/1).

Joint Chiefs Chairman: Israel may not notify U.S. if it strikes Iran
General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Haaretz that the U.S. would be alerted by Israel if it attacks Iran.  Dempsey says that the U.S. believes sanctions and diplomatic pressure are the best way forward right now, but that he is “not sure the Israelis share our assessment of that” and may move without the U.S. (even if this forces the U.S. into war) (Haaretz 11/30).  This came the same day that President Obama told donors at a campaign event that Israel is the United States’ “most important ally” and we would not compromise when it comes to Israel’s security (Reuters 11/30).  Defense Secretary Leon Panetta last week met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and raised American concerns about the unintended consequences of military strikes against Iran.  According to a report by AFP, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says that Israel is holding off an military strikes “for the moment” but that all options remain on the table for the future.

EU imposes new sanctions but oil embargo questionable
Today the EU decided to increase existing sanctions on Iran by placing travel bans on and freezing the assets of an additional 180 Iranian individuals and companies (Radio Free Europe 12/1).   Reuters is reporting that the UK has decided to support an oil embargo against Iran, whether it is “unilaterally or with France and Germany” (Reuters 11/30).  The Wall Street Journal writes that for the EU’s part, it has not yet decided on whether to implement an oil embargo against Iran, and that Greece is leading opposition to the measure, as they fear it could damage their struggling economy (Wall Street Journal 11/30).   With this increased talk of an oil embargo against Iran, Bloomberg reported today that crude oil is trading at a two week high, and concern over an embargo in the EU is a major driver for this (Bloomberg 12/1).

Additional Notable News:

The U.S.’s economic sanctions on Iran has created confusing conditions for Iranian Americans trying to send money to their families in Iran, reports NPR.

US News is reporting that Iranian sanctions could actually do more harm to the West than to their intended targets in Iran.

The Financial Times reports that the recent increase in tensions with the West are pushing Iranian politicians to ratchet up their rhetoric against the West.

Expanding international trade in surveillance technologies is a growing concern because, as a Washington Post article reports, once such technologies are getting into the hands of the Iranian regime and assisting in their suppression of dissenters.

Fallout from embassy attacks
The Guardian reports that the UK government has given 48 hours for all Iranian officials to leave the country in response to what the British government believes was a government supported attack on their embassy.  The article states that while this step will not mean a complete severance of ties, it does mark a “new low in relations” (Guardian 11/30).   The Guardian also reports that Norway has decided to temporarily close its embassy in Iran, and that Sweden has called the Iranian ambassador in Stockholm to its foreign ministry to answer questions about yesterday’s events (Guardian 11/30).  The Jerusalem Post reports that Germany is also recalling their ambassador to Iran (Jerusalem Post 11/30).

Contrary to the reports from Iranian news outlets, an EA WorldView article provides evidence that the “students” at yesterday’s embassy attack were actually members of the Basij (EA Worldview 11/30).

Sabotage and the recent Iranian explosions
The Australian is reporting that yesterday’s explosion in the city of Isfahan did in fact occur and damaged Iran’s nuclear facility.  The article also quotes Israeli Intelligence Minister, who appeared to be hinting at Israeli involvement, as saying, “There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat” (The Australian 11/30).  This comes on the heels of satellite photos showing extensive damage from the previous explosion at the Malard missile facility, which appears effectively destroyed by the blast (Washington Post 11/28).   In an op-ed in NY Times, Robert Cohen argues the merits of covert attacks, which he says have been the cause of the two recent Iranian explosions.  However, in the op-ed he also acknowledges that such covert attacks are problematic as their legality is dubious and that they “invite repayment in kind” (Cohen NY Times 11/29).

Aggressive Iran polices options likely to raise price of oil
The Financial Times is reporting that oil prices are already rising based on talks of a potential Iranian oil embargo by the EU (Financial Times 11/29).  AFP reported yesterday that the lead sponsor of Iranian sanctions, Senator Mark Kirk, says that Saudi Arabian officials have told him that they will help to make up any loses caused by an embargo against Iranian oil to prevent price increases (AFP 11/29).  Additionally, The Financial Times has published the findings of a PIMCO study that gives four potential scenarios for the price of oil if an attack on Iran was to occur.  All four of these scenarios show a significant increase in oil, of which even the most optimistic scenario would be “enough to collapse global economic growth” (The Financial Post 11/30).

Additional Notable News:
Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan warns that an Israeli attack on Iran would cause a regional war that would have severe consequence for the country, according to an article in Haaretz.

Human Rights Watch writes that residents of Camp Ashraf, the site housing members of MEK in Iraq, should be allowed to meet with UN refugee agencies privately and away from the camp in order eliminate “fear of harm from either camp leaders or the Iraqi authorities.”

UK Embassy stormed during Basiji student protest

Regime supports, protesting the UK’s most recent sanctions against Iran, broke into the UK embassy in Tehran.  According to a Washington Post article, the attackers threw petrol bombs at the building and committed various acts of vandalism inside the embassy (Washington Post 11/29).   According to a Guardian report, all embassy workers are now safe and accounted for, although Iranian security forces did have to intervene to free six embassy workers surrounded by protestors.  The Guardian also reported that in response to the embassy attacks, Iranian Foreign Minister Salehi has apologized to his British counterpart and called the incident “a very serious failure by the Iranian government” (Guardian 11/29).  The Daily Star reported, in addition to the main British Embassy, a second diplomatic compound was breached by protestors in Northern Tehran (Daily Star 11/28). (To view pictures of today’s events click here.)

Sanctions watch
According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, European Council President said that they are preparing more sanctions against Iran (Jerusalem Post 11/28).  In the U.S., Senators Menendez and Kirk appear to have agreed upon language for an amendment to the Defense Authorization Act, to be voted on this week, that would require the president to sanction the Central Bank of Iran and would expand existing sanctions on Iran’s petroleum industry (Rogin The Cable 11/29).

Doubts continue to be raised about how effective these sanctions will be.  Ron Paul’s congressional website posted a new statement calling sanctions “folly” and recommending instead that the U.S. pursue a free trade policy with Iran to ease tensions and build an economic relationship.  Reuters reported that Iran sanctions are unlikely to work as the regime seems to be willing to accept the costs, and “are entrenching themselves in a siege mentality, ready for a showdown if need be” (Reuters 11/28).

Notable Opinion

Robin Mills writes in the National that no matter what outcome would come from sanctions they will be harmful to the U.S. and its allies.

“These sanctions therefore really have no good outcome for the US. Either they fail, or they hurt America and its allies.

Intensified rhetoric, whether from Tehran, Tel Aviv or Washington, stirs fears of crisis and pushes up oil prices. As long as Iran’s oil exports are not seriously affected, it probably gains more in the “fear premium” than it loses in increased transaction costs. Russia, another strategic competitor to the US, gains both from the current mini-Cold War, and if a hot war does break out.

All these questions on the technical efficacy of sanctions are, of course, secondary to their impotence as tools of policy. Iranian policymakers are unlikely to be swayed by even severe economic damage, sanctions hurt ordinary people while empowering the regime’s most hardline elements, and it is unlikely that Tehran can offer any concessions that will satisfy Washington.

Presumably US policymakers are well-aware of all these issues, suggesting that the latest round of sanctions is intended to provide the White House with political cover against accusations that it is “soft” on Iran”

To read the full piece click here

Additional Notable News:

Washington post has published before and after satellite photos of the Malard missile development base that was the subject of a suspicious explosion on November 12.

Inter Press Service reports that despite sanctions Iranians show a continue willingness to spend money, even on luxury items, regardless of increasing prices.

Their continued to be conflicting reports on the nature of a reported explosion in Isfahan, where Iran’s houses one of its main nuclear facilities, according to a report in the Guardian.